Historic Investment Returns

The Canadian Consumer Price Index has been quite stable since 1992.  In the 30 years from 1963 to 1992, the average annual increase (inflation rate) was 5.7%.  During that time, there were 5 years where the inflation rate was over 10%, including 1981, when the rate was 12.4%.  1981 is also the year when Canadian 5 year mortgage rates were over 21% for a couple of months.  The average 5 year mortgage rate from 1963 to 1992 was 11.03%.

 

Historical returns on stock markets and other investments
to December 31, 2012

Type of Investment

1 year

5 years

10 years

20 years

50 years

Avg
Annual
Return

Value

Avg
Annual
Return

Value

Avg
Annual
Return

Value

Avg
Annual
Return

Value

Avg
Annual
Return

Value

Cdn 3 month T-bills

1.0%

$1,010

1.0%

$1.053

2.1%

$1,232

3.3%

$1,932

6.2%

$20,155

Cdn Govt Bonds 1 to 3 year

1.1%

$1,011

1.6%

$1,081

2.5%

$1,285

4.0%

$2,183

6.6%

$24,464

Cdn Govt Bonds over 10 years

2.3%

$1,023

3.4%

$1,183

4.0%

$1,487

5.4%

$2,848

7.6%

$38,494

S&P/TSX (Cdn) Index (formerly TSE300)

4.0%

$1,040

-1.1%

$945

6.6%

$1,893

6.8%

$3,762

n/a

n/a

Nikkei 225 Index in Cdn$

9.1%

$1,091

-1.0%

$949

2.4%

$1,271

-0.3%

$943

n/a

n/a

S&P 500 (US) Index in Cdn$

13.5%

$1,135

1.8%

$1,093

2.3%

$1,259

7.2%

$3,994

9.6%

$99,727

European stocks in Cdn$

17.3%

$1,173

-3.6%

$833

4.1%

$1,497

7.6%

$4,326

n/a

n/a

Emerging markets stocks in Cdn$

16.0%

$1,160

-0.5%

$976

11.7%

$3,017

7.8%

$4,463

n/a

n/a

Canadian Consumer Price Index All Items

0.8%

$1,008

1.6%

$1,082

1.9%

$1,212

1.8%

$1,442

4.1%

$7,631

Value is the value at the end of the period, in Canadian$, of $1,000 invested at the beginning of the period.

n/a = not available

 

 

The rise of the Canadian dollar has had a significant effect on the above results. As an example, see the following 10 year results in US$

Money - Fifty dollar bill (Padgett)
S&P 500 7.1% $1,986
European stocks 9.0% $2,361
Emerging markets stocks 16.9% $4,760

 

Sources of data used to calculate the above returns:
Bank of Canada Rates and Statistics – Interest Rates, Standard & Poor’s, Statistics Canada, Yahoo, Morgan Stanley, UBC Pacific Exchange Rate Service.
The returns are the total returns with dividends or interest reinvested.
All values and returns are in Canadian $

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